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Miami Heat at Atlanta Hawks odds, picks and prediction

Mar 2, 2021; Miami, Florida, USA; Miami Heat guard Tyler Herro (14) defends Atlanta Hawks guard Bogdan Bogdanovic (13) during the first half at American Airlines Arena. Mandatory Credit: Rhona Wise-USA TODAY Sports

The Miami Heat (31-28) drop by the State Farm Arena Thursday to play the host Atlanta Hawks (32-27) at 7:30 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze the Heat-Hawks odds and lines, with NBA picks and predictions.

Miami is on a three-game win streak with the latest being a 107-87 whooping of the San Antonio Spurs as 1.5-point road underdogs.

The Heat are in seventh place in the East (seeds 7-10 in each conference participate in a postseason play-in tournament), but are just 1 game behind the 5-seed Hawks.

Atlanta lost to the 4-seed New York Knicks 137-127 in overtime as 1.5-point road favorites in what could be a playoff preview.

Before the loss, Atlanta won back-to-back games and five of the previous six games from April 11-20.

These teams split their first two meetings of the season, both in Miami, with the victor winning by double digits and covering in each game. However, Heat’s Jimmy Butler missed both games.

Heat at Hawks: Odds, spread and lines

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:30 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Heat -225 (bet $225 to win $100) | Hawks +175 (bet $100 to win $175)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Heat -5 (-110) | Hawks +5 (-110)
  • Over/Under: 213.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Heat at Spurs: Key injuries

Heat

  • SG Tyler Herro (foot) questionable
  • SG Victor Oladipo (knee) out

Hawks

  • PG Trae Young (ankle) out
  • Clint Capela (back) questionable
  • SF Danilo Gallinari (foot) questionable
  • SF Tony Snell (ankle) doubtful
  • SF De’Andre Hunter (knee) out
  • SG Cam Reddish (Achilles) out

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Heat at Hawks: Odds, lines, predictions and picks

Prediction

Heat 109, Hawks 100

Money line (ML)

PASS because Miami is the right side, but the Heat (-225) are too expensive for a money line favorite in this quirky NBA season.

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Against the spread (ATS)

Wait until Capela’s official game status is announced because if he cannot play I “LIKE” the HEAT -5 (-110) for a 1 unit, but if Capela does play then I’d only “lean” to Miami covering the spread.

The Hawks will definitely be without Young, who’s one of the highest usage players in the league, and Young’s ability to get to the foul line wreaks havoc on other team’s defenses.

Atlanta is second in FTA/FG rate, and Young is in the 97th percentile of point guards in on-off team free-throw rate (according to CleaningTheGlass.com).

Also, the Hawks have the third-highest offensive rebounding rate in the Association as a team, and Capela has both the highest total and offensive rebounding rate of any player.

Furthermore, Capela averaged 15 points and 15.5 rebounds per game with 16 offensive rebounds in the first two Heat-Hawks games this season.

And again Butler missed these games, and he is in the 94th percentile of wings in team on-off defensive rebounding rate, according to CleaningTheGlass.com.

Finally, the Heat are 9-7 ATS as a road favorite whereas the Hawks are just 4-6 ATS as a home dog with a minus-4.6-point margin of victory.

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the UNDER 213.5 (-110) for a half unit because Atlanta could be without its two most impactful offensive players, and both teams are in the bottom-10 of pace.

Additionally, the Heat have gone Under the total in three straight and the Hawks are 8-13 O/U vs. teams with a winning record.

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