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Kansas City Royals at Detroit Tigers odds, picks and prediction

Apr 21, 2021; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Detroit Tigers designated hitter Wilson Ramos (40) hits a double during the sixth inning against the Pittsburgh Pirates at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports

The Kansas City Royals (10-7) and Detroit Tigers (7-12) meet Friday night at 7:10 p.m. ET to open a series at Comerica Park. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Royals vs. Tigers odds with MLB picks and predictions.

LHP Mike Minor is the projected starting pitcher for the Royals. Over 15 appearances (14 starts) the last two seasons, Minor is 2-7 with a 5.47 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 9.2 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9 over 72 1/3 IP. He owns a 5.17 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in three turns this season.

RHP Casey Mize is the projected starter for the Tigers. He is 1-4 with a 5.68 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 7.9 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9 in 44 1/3 IP over 10 starts in the last two seasons. He owns a 3.38 ERA in three starts in 2021. In the most recent of those — Saturday against the Oakland Athletics — Mize was tagged for 3 home runs en route to allowing 5 ER in 5 IP.

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Royals at Tigers odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:35 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Royals -120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Tigers +100 (bet $100 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Royals -1.5 (+135) |  Tigers +1.5 (-160)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Prediction

Tigers 5, Royals 4

Money line (ML)

Peg the Royals as being a couple of games or more too far out over their skis with a 10-7 record. The lean here is small because the Tigers’ bullpen doesn’t inspire much confidence, but the upside to Mize with his early velocity uptick and better control is the difference-maker in approaching this line.

The Tigers are off to a terrible start against southpaws, but it’s a small sample, and (albeit in another small sample) they have a solid .874 OPS against Minor. Mize brings out the lesser side of the Royals’ splits with their .696 OPS vs. right-handed pitching.

This is also KC’s first road game coming off a 10-game homestand.

TAKE THE TIGERS (+100).

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

A Tigers price better than -150 would be attractive but PASS on the listed tag.

Over/Under (O/U)

The offenses for either side aren’t that likable; the pitching is even less so.

Both bullpens figure as bottom-third units. KC’s bats have started to come around a bit of late with a .770 OPS over their last 8 games.

Temperatures in the mid-to-high-50s represent a significant warm-up; the Tigers may feel like this game is being played in Grapefruit League weather after recent frozen nights in the Motor City.

BACK THE OVER 8.5 (-105).

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