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Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals odds, picks and prediction

Apr 17, 2021; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; St. Louis Cardinals pitcher Kwang Hyun Kim (33) delivers a pitch during the third inning against the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Gregory Fisher-USA TODAY Sports

The Cincinnati Reds (9-9) visit NL Central rival St. Louis Cardinals (8-10) Friday for the first game of a three-game set at Busch Stadium. First pitch is set for 8:15 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Reds vs. Cardinals odds with MLB picks and predictions.

The Reds have lost four straight games and two of their past three series with their losses coming against the Arizona Diamondbacks earlier this week and the San Francisco Giants from April 12-14.

The Cardinals are 4-8 in their last 12 games and have dropped four straight series to the Washington Nationals (twice), Philadelphia Phillies and Milwaukee Brewers.

Cincinnati’s offense erupted when it took two of three games in the first series against St. Louis this season. The Reds outscored the Cards 27-18.

RHP Sonny Gray is on the hill for the Reds. He is 0-0 with a 4.15 ERA, 1.85 WHIP, 4.2 BB/9 and 12.5 K/9 in 1 start.

  • Last outing: No-decision in 4 1/3 IP with 2 ER, 6 H, 2 BB and 6 K Saturday in Cincinnati’s 3-2 win over the Cleveland Indians.
  • Career vs. Cardinals: 1-2 with a 3.86 ERA, 1.37 WHIP and 10.0 K/9 across 5 starts.

LHP Kwang Hyun Kim makes his second start for the Cardinals. Kim is 0-0 with a 9.00 ERA (3 IP, 3 ER), 2.00 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 12.0 K/9.

  • Last outing: No-decision in 3 IP with 3 ER, 5 H, 1 BB and 4 K in St. Louis’ 9-4 victory at the Phillies Saturday.
  • Career vs. Reds: 2-0 in 11 IP with a 0.00 ERA, 0.73 WHIP and 5.7 K/9 in 2 starts.

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Reds at Cardinals odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:35 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Reds -110 (bet $110 to win $100) | Cardinals -110 (bet $110 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Reds -1.5 (+150) | Cardinals +1.5 (-185)
  • Over/Under: 8 (O: +100 | U: -120)

Prediction

Cardinals 7, Reds 3

Money line (ML)

GIMME CARDINALS (-110) because the “sharp” side of the market is backing St. Louis and I think Kim bounces back from a shaky first start.

According to Pregame.com, more than 60% of the money wagered (“sharps”) is on the Cardinals while more than 60% of the bets placed (“average Joe”) is on the Reds. In sports gambling, it’s wiser to follow the money rather than the crowd of people.

Kim was filthy in his two starts against the Reds last season and, last season, Statcast graded Kim in the 84th percentile in both barrel% and hard-hit rate.

Furthermore, if these starters turn the ball over to the bullpen in a close game, I have a lot more faith in St. Louis’ bullpen than Cincinnati’s.

The Reds bullpen is 3-4 with the second-worst FIP, fourth-lowest left on-base percentage and second-highest home run to fly ball ratio.

BET CARDINALS (-110) for 1 unit.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Slight “LEAN” to the CARDINALS -1.5 (+170) on the alternate run line for a quarter unit since the payout is very juicy and the last six Reds-Cardinals games were decided by 2 or more runs.

Over/Under (O/U)

PASS with a slight “lean” to the Over 8 (+100) since the teams have a combined 22-13-1 O/U this season.

Like the money line section, the “sharp” side of the market is on the Under and the “average Joe” is on the Over. Also, I’m projecting a good outing from Kim.

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