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New York Mets at Chicago Cubs odds, picks and prediction

Apr 21, 2021; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Chicago Cubs first baseman Anthony Rizzo (left) and shortstop Javier Baez (9) celebrate after scoring against the New York Mets during the fourth inning at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-USA TODAY Sports

The New York Mets (7-6) look to prevent a three-game sweep by the Chicago Cubs (8-9) Thursday. Game 3 of the series is scheduled for a 7:40 p.m. ET start at Wrigley Field. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Mets vs. Cubs odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Chicago won the first two games of the series by a combined score of 19-5 and has a six-game winning streak over the Mets dating back to 2019.

LHP Joey Lucchesi is the projected starter for the Mets. He is 0-1 with a 5.40 ERA (5 IP, 3 ER), 1.00 WHIP, 0.00 BB/9 and 10.8 K/9 through 1 start and 1 relief appearance this season.

  • Last outing: Loss in 3 IP with 3 ER, 4 H, 0 BB and 3 K in the Mets’ 7-2 loss to the Colorado Rockies Saturday.
  • Career vs. Cubs: 0-1 with a 7.20 ERA, 2.00 WHIP and 10.8 K/9 in 2 starts.

RHP Trevor Williams gets his fourth start for the Cubs. He is 2-1 with a 5.02 ERA (14 1/3 IP, 8 ER), 1.61 WHIP, 4.4 BB/9 and 8.2 K/9 through 3 starts.

  • Last outing: Win in 5 IP with 1 ER, 4 H, 3 BB and 4 K Saturday in Chicago’s 13-4 victory over the Atlanta Braves.
  • Career vs. Mets: 3-1 with a 2.08 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 5.9 K/9 over 4 starts.

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Mets at Cubs odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:55 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Mets -120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Cubs +100 (bet $100 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Mets -1.5 (+125) | Cubs +1.5 (-155)
  • Over/Under: 9.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Prediction

Cubs 8, Mets 5

Money line (ML)

One reason Williams has a significant edge in this starting pitching matchup is his high ground ball rate given the weather forecast predicts nearly 10 mph winds out to centerfield.

Williams has an 8.00 ground ball to fly ball ratio (1.93 is average) and a 6.8% fly-ball rate (22.5% is average).

Also, Cubs hitters have gotten to Lucchesi in their few plate appearances against the 27-year-old lefty. Current Chicago hitters have a .652/.680/1.13 slash line with 2 HR in just 23 at-bats.

BET CUBS (+100) for a half unit.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Slight “LEAN” to the CUBS -1.5 (+180) on the alternate line for a quarter unit since I like Chicago’s chances of chasing Lucceshi early and New York’s bullpen has been dreadful to start the season.

Mets relievers have the third-highest ERA and WHIP in the majors, and the lowest left on-base percentage in the league so if Lucchesi turns the game over with runners on or with a deficit then the Cubs will add to their lead.

Over/Under (O/U)

Since the beginning of last season, the Cubs are 7-6 O/U as home underdogs and the Mets have an MLB-high 68.2% Over rate (15-7-1 O/U) as a road favorite.

Furthermore, while Williams’ ground ball and fly ball rates set him up for success in this windy day at Wrigley, Lucceshi gives up too many fly balls.

Lucchesi has a 35.7% fly-ball rate (compared to Williams’ 6.8%) and a 1.00 ground ball to fly ball ratio (compared to Williams’ 8.00).

Slight “LEAN” to the OVER 9.5 (-110) for a quarter unit.

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