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Miami Marlins at San Francisco Giants odds, picks and prediction

Apr 20, 2021; Miami, Florida, USA; Miami Marlins shortstop Miguel Rojas (19) singles in a run against the Baltimore Orioles in the 6th inning at loanDepot park. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

The Miami Marlins (8-9) and San Francisco Giants (11-7) open a four-game weekend set at Oracle Park with a 9:45 p.m. ET first pitch Thursday. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Marlins vs. Giants odds with MLB picks and predictions.

LHP Daniel Castano is the projected starting pitcher for the Marlins. He allowed 1 run in a 5-inning season debut against the Giants April 16. In 7 games as s rookie last season, the lefty logged a 1-2 record, 3.03 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 3.6 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9 over 29 2/3 IP.

RHP Aaron Sanchez is the projected starter for the Giants. He is 0-1 with a 2.45 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 7.4 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9 through 14 2/3 IP over 3 starts. Sanchez was a February free-agent signing; he’s returning from shoulder surgery and missed all of 2020. Albeit in small doses, the Marlins own an aggregate .875 OPS against the 7-year Major League veteran.

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Marlins at Giants odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:10 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Marlins +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Giants -150 (bet $150 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Marlins +1.5 (-150) | Giants -1.5 (+125)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Prediction

Marlins 5, Giants 4

Money line (ML)

The Marlins and Giants meet for a second straight weekend. Miami took 2 of 3 from San Francisco last week in South Florida. The Marlins are 8-9 despite playing a tough slate and are 7-3 over their last 10 games.

The Giants are back at home after an east coast road trip (Miami, Philadelphia). They are 9-4 with a nifty 2.85 team ERA over their last 13 games.

Both teams take to the field after cross-country travel and no off day. The Marlins do so with a better-rested bullpen, and there is a bit play-Miami/fade San Francisco in the early numbers.

BACK THE MARLINS (+125).

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

The tag on Miami is too steep here: PASS.

Over/Under (O/U)

Peg the ERAs for both starters and both bullpens as being artificially deflated by generous rates around the margins. The Giants have a below-average .711 OPS against lefty pitching, but it’s a number held in check by a .203 batting average on balls in play in the split.

Figure on a near-50% chance of this contest reaching a double-digit total, so there is VALUE ON THE OVER 8.5 (-110).

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