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Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox odds, picks and prediction

Apr 20, 2021; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Boston Red Sox shortstop Xander Bogaerts (2) rounds the bases after hitting a three run home run during the fourth inning against the Toronto Blue Jays at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports

The Toronto Blue Jays (7-10) play the second half of a two-game set at Fenway Park against the Boston Red Sox (12-6) Wednesday. First pitch will be thrown at 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Blue Jays vs. Red Sox odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Trent Thornton (0-0) gets the ball for his first start of 2021 in an expected opener role. The 27-year-old has a 2.35 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 7.0 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9 over 7 2/3 innings spanning 5 relief appearances.

RHP Garrett Richard (0-1) owns a 6.00 ERA and 1.75 WHIP with 7.5 K/9 and 5.3 BB/9 over 12 IP and 3 starts. He has been much better with 2 ER across 10 IP over his last 2 outings after getting lit up by the Baltimore Orioles in his first start.

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Blue Jays at Red Sox odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:45 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Blue Jays +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Red Sox -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Blue Jays +1.5 (-175) |  Red Sox -1.5 (+145)
  • Over/Under: 10 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Prediction

Blue Jays 5, Red Sox 4

Money line (ML)

The BLUE JAYS (+105) should be backed as short underdogs after dropping Tuesday’s contest 4-2 in Boston. All 4 Red Sox runs came in the fourth inning against ace LHP Hyun-Jin Ryu. Three were delivered on a home run by SS Xander Bogaerts.

Toronto has the best bullpen in baseball with a 2.14 ERA and Thornton has been a big part of that success. He makes his first start of 2021, but he led the Jays in both starts made and innings pitched in 2019.

Boston has the best team OPS in baseball against right-handed pitching at .842 but the Jays’ deep ‘pen held the Sox scoreless Tuesday and can match up well once Thornton comes out of the game.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS on the run line with the greater value lying with the Blue Jays’ money line.

It’s not worth the risk of laying $175 for a $100 profit or $10 for a $5.71 profit for just one run of insurance on Toronto.

Over/Under (O/U)

Back the UNDER 10 (-115).

Tuesday’s run total came in comfortably below a projected line of 8.5 runs. While that was in the weaker side of the batting split for both teams and with No. 1 pitchers on the bump, Wednesday’s projected total is too high based on Richards’ one poor outing this season.

The Toronto offense remains shorthanded with OFs George Springer (quadriceps) and Teoscar Hernandez (COVID-19) still on the shelf. The Jays scored more than 5 runs in just two of their last 10 games.

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