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St. Louis Cardinals at Washington Nationals odds, picks and prediction

Apr 20, 2021; Washington, District of Columbia, USA; St. Louis Cardinals second baseman Tommy Edman (19) forces out Washington Nationals second baseman Josh Harrison (5) and throws to first to complete a double play during the third inning at Nationals Park. Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports

The St. Louis Cardinals (8-9) and Washington Nationals (6-9) wrap up a three-game series at Nationals Park with a 4:05 p.m. ET first pitch Wednesday. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Cardinals vs. Nationals odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Carlos Martinez is the projected starting pitcher for the Cardinals. He is 0-6 with a 9.00 ERA, 1.80 WHIP, 6.9 K/9 and 3.6 BB/9 through 35 IP over 8 starts spanning the last two seasons. He allowed at least 3 ER in each of his three starts this season. He owns a Boeing ERA of 7.80 in 2021.

RHP Max Scherzer is the projected starter for the Nationals. Over 2020-21, Scherzer is 5-5 with a 3.44 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 12.1 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9 through 86 1/3 IP in 15 combined starts. He has allowed just 1 ER in his last 13 innings of work. Current Cardinal bats own a whiff-laden .482 OPS against Scherzer.

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Cardinals at Nationals odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:30 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Cardinals +140 (bet $100 to win $140) | Nationals -165 (bet $165 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Cardinals +1.5 (-140) |  Nationals -1.5 (+115)
  • Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)

Prediction

Cardinals 6, Nationals 4

Money line (ML)

The Cards took the opener of this series 12-5 and the Nats responded with a 3-2 win Tuesday.

With some tilt toward some value in the St. Louis offense and just a tad in the fade-Scherzer column (or at least fade at this kind of price), there is a razor-thin lean toward the CARDINALS (+140). A tag of +150 or higher would make for some profit margin.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS. A profitable Cardinals’ side is more likable on the money line.

Over/Under (O/U)

Surface run production numbers for the Washington offense don’t match with the higher proficiency that shows in advanced metrics. St. Louis has solid scoring numbers, but even its offense is perhaps underperforming given how hard the Cards have been hitting baseballs this April.

The Redbirds’ .709 OPS is undercut by low batting-average-on-balls-in-play numbers in runners-in-scoring-position and lead-off situations.

With some fade action in Scherzer’s early-season 2.37 ERA and on both bullpens, there is a heavy Over lean to this game.

OVER 7.5 (-120) is one of the better plays on the board Wednesday.

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