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New York Mets at Chicago Cubs odds, picks and prediction

Apr 20, 2021; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Chicago Cubs catcher Willson Contreras (40) hits an RBI-single against the New York Mets during the third inning at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports

The New York Mets (7-5) tangle with the Chicago Cubs (7-9) in Game 2 of their three-game set at Wrigley Field Wednesday. First pitch is set for 7:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Mets vs. Cubs odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Chicago won the first game of the series 3-1 Tuesday thanks to a solid outing from RHP Jake Arrieta and New York leaving 10 men on base.

Season series: Cubs 1-0.

LHP David Peterson is on the mound for the Mets. He is 1-1 with a 6.30 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 13.5 K/9 through 2 starts.

  • Last outing: Win in 6 IP with 1 ER, 3 H, 0 BB and 10 K in New York’s 5-1 victory over the Philadelphia Phillies last Wednesday.
  • Career vs. Cubs: No appearances.

RHP Zach Davies gets the start for the Cubs. He is 1-2 with a 10.32 ERA, 2.21 WHIP, 7.1 BB/9 and 6.4 K/9 through 3 starts.

  • Last outing: Loss in 4 IP, 4 ER, 7 H, 3 BB and 1 K in the Cubs’ 5-2 loss to the Atlanta Braves.
  • Career vs. Mets: 3-2 with a 5.06 ERA, 1.37 WHIP and 6.3 K/9 in 7 starts.

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Mets at Cubs odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:50 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Mets -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Cubs +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Mets -1.5 (+135) | Cubs +1.5 (-165)
  • Over/Under: 7 (O: -120 | U: +100)

Prediction

Cubs 5, Mets 4

Money line (ML)

The CUBS (+105) are 3-0 this season vs. left-handed starting pitchers, hit 43 points higher and score 1.76 runs more per nine innings against lefties than they do against righties.

Furthermore, Chicago’s lineup is bottom-six in wRC+, wOBA and OPS overall but top-10 vs. left-handed pitchers in those same metrics.

BET the CUBS (+105) for 1 unit.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS with a “lean” to the Cubs -1.5 (+200) on the alternate line because the payout is so juicy. What’s holding me back is Chicago has scored 4 or more runs in only three of its past 10 games.

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the OVER 7 (-120) for a half unit because I am less confident in the starting pitchers than these inconsistent lineups and the Mets are 14-7-1 O/U as a road favorite since the beginning of last season.

Davies has been off since last week and the 6-plus day rest split is Davies’ worst rest split. He is 5-10 with a 4.53 ERA, 1.45 WHIP and 7.5 K/9 in 21 starts.

Also, Chicago hits better against lefties while New York’s lineup is more productive against righties, and Wrigley Field is a hitter-friendly ballpark.

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