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Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox odds, picks and prediction

Apr 13, 2021; Dunedin, Florida, CAN; Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher Hyun Jin Ryu (99) throws against the New York Yankees in the first inning at TD Ballpark. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

The Toronto Blue Jays (7-9) begin a two-game road set against the AL East rival Boston Red Sox (11-6) Tuesday at Fenway Park. The first pitch will be thrown at 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Blue Jays vs. Red Sox odds with MLB picks and predictions.

LHP Hyun-Jin Ryu will make his fourth start of the season for the Blue Jays. The now 34-year-old finished third in AL Cy Young voting last year and has picked up where he left off. He is 1-1 with a 1.89 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 9.0 K/9 and 0.9 BB/9. He has allowed 2 home runs over 19 innings.

LHP Eduardo Rodriguez is set for his third start of 2021 for the Red Sox. He is 2-0 with a 3.60 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 10.8 K/9 and 0.9 BB/9 after sitting out the 2020 campaign due to COVID-19. He has allowed 2 homers through 10 innings.

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Blue Jays at Red Sox odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Blue Jays -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Red Sox -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Blue Jays -1.5 (+155) |  Red Sox +1.5 (-190)
  • Over/Under: 8 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Prediction

Blue Jays 5, Red Sox 2

Money line (ML)

Ryu oddly didn’t face the Red Sox once in the regionally aligned 2020 campaign, his first with the Blue Jays. The lack of familiarity for the Boston bats will play to the veteran’s advantage. He enters off a win over the New York Yankees in which he struck out 7 with a single walk over 6 2/3 scoreless innings last Tuesday.

While Boston leads baseball with 96 runs scored, Toronto has the edge in the lefty-lefty battle. The teams share a .728 OPS in the split, but the Blue Jays have the better wOBA and wRC+.

Back the BLUE JAYS (-105) as slight road underdogs.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

The BLUE JAYS -1.5 (+155) are a better play to win by at least 2 runs. Not only do they have the advantage in the starting pitcher battle, but they lead baseball with a 2.24 bullpen ERA. Even with RHPs Kirby YatesJulian Merryweather and Jordan Romano all on the injured list, Toronto still has the edge over Boston in the late innings.

Red Sox relievers are walking 4.02 batters per nine innings and have benefited from an unsustainable 3.6% home run-to-fly-ball rate.

Over/Under (O/U)

The UNDER 8 (-105) is the more appealing side of the projected total. Both teams are in the middle of the pack on offense in the lefty split.

Expect Ryu to shut down the Boston offense in his first appearance against them in a rival uniform. The Toronto offense remains shorthanded with OFs George Springer (quadriceps) and Teoscar Hernandez (COVID-19) on the injured list.

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