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New York Mets at Chicago Cubs odds, picks and prediction

Apr 13, 2021; New York City, New York, USA; New York Mets pitcher Taijuan Walker (99) pitches in the first inning against the Philadelphia Phillies at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports

The New York Mets (7-4) drop by Wrigley Field Tuesday for Game 1 of a three-game set with the host Chicago Cubs (6-9). First pitch is scheduled for 7:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Mets vs. Cubs odds with MLB picks and predictions.

New York took two of three games against the Colorado Rockies this past weekend following a three-game sweep of the Philadelphia Phillies.

The Cubs lost two of their last three series and six of their last nine games against the Pittsburgh Pirates, Milwaukee Brewers and Atlanta Braves. The beat the Braves 13-4 at Wrigley Field Saturday for their lone win of that three-game series.

RHP Taijuan Walker is making his third start of the season for the Mets. He is 0-0 with a 2.61 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 4.4 BB/9 and 10.5 K/9 through 2 starts.

  • Last outing: No-decision in 4 1/3 IP with 1 ER, 3 H, 3 BB and 8 K in New York’s 4-3 win over the Phillies last Tuesday.
  • Career vs. Cubs: 0-1 with a 7.20 ERA, 1.60 WHIP and 3.6 K/9 in 1 start.

RHP Jake Arrieta takes the mound for the Cubs. He is 2-1 with a 3.18 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 7.4 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9 in three turns through the rotation.

  • Last outing: Loss in 5 IP with 3 ER, 4 H, 1 BB and 5 K in the Cubs’ 7-0 loss at the Brewers Wednesday.
  • Career vs. Mets: 6-5 with a 3.09 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 7.8 K/9 through 16 starts.

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Mets at Cubs odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 3 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Mets -135 (bet $135 to win $100) | Cubs +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Mets -1.5 (+125) | Cubs +1.5 (-155)
  • Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Prediction

Mets 5, Cubs 2

Money line (ML)

Mets hitters have been properly lambasted for insufficient production during Jacob deGrom starts, but all in all, New York has an average to improving lineup. The Mets are ninth in wOBA, wRC+ and OPS vs. right-handed pitching with a lot of familiarity and success against Arrieta.

Current Mets hitters are slashing .368/.423/.533 vs. Arrieta with 5 HR in 147 at-bats.

Also, Walker has looked good in his first season with the Mets. Statcast grades him in the 95th percentile of exit velocity and 74th percentile in both Whiff% and K%.

GIMME METS (-135) for 1 unit.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS with a slight “lean” to the Mets -1.5 (+125) because of the Mets’ track record vs. Arrieta and New York’s pitching edge in general.

The Mets’ bullpen is third in both FIP and SIERA and sixth in home run to fly-ball rate.

What’s keeping my money in the wallet is the measly payout for New York winning by 2 or more runs.

Over/Under (O/U)

Slight “LEAN” to the UNDER 7.5 (-105) for a quarter unit if at all because while I like New York’s lineup tonight, Chicago’s lineup has been inconsistent at best and nearly 80% of the money is on the Over, according to Pregame.com).

The Cubs thrive on the longball, which Walker hasn’t allowed in his last four starts dating back to last season and the lopsided market makes this a “fade” or nothing spot.

For the record, New York’s money line is the best bet in Mets-Cubs.

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