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Toyota Owners 400 at Richmond Raceway - NASCAR picks and best bets

The Monster Energy Cup Series moves to Richmond Raceway, the third short-track race of the 2019 MENCS schedule.

The weather wiped out the final practice session Friday, and thunderstorms are in the forecast for Saturday. It will rain quite a bit in the afternoon, in fact, but the chances of precipitation decrease as the day goes on. It will still be rather summer-like steamy in the evening, with high humidity, but the chance of rain is 25 percent or less, so the race should get in as scheduled.

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Who is going to win at Richmond Raceway?

Randy Sartin-USA TODAY Sports

Joe Gibbs Racing driver Kyle Busch (+240) tops the charts in Average-Finish Position (AFP) among active drivers at Richmond, posting a 6.93 AFP with six victories, 17 top-5s and 20 top-10s with 1,181 laps led in 27 career starts, and he has never finished lower than 24th.

Since Sep. ’15, a Toyota has been to Victory Lane five times in the past seven starts, including a sweep by Kyle Busch last season.

JGR’s Denny Hamlin (+1000) has three victories in 25 career starts at Richmond while leading all drivers with 1,659 laps led. He also has 11 top-5 finishes, 15 top-10 showings and like Busch, the driver who grew up Chesterfield, Va. has never finished lower than 24th at Richmond. NASCAR’s Loop Data also shows him in fifth with a 105.5 Driver Rating over the past five races, leading 254 laps with an 8.6 AFP.

Another JGR driver, Martin Truex Jr. (+700), tops the charts in terms of Driver Rating overt he past five Richmond starts, posting an impressive 120.2 mark with 675 laps led and an amazing 95.2 percent of his laps run inside the Top 15. He has actually never won at Richmond in 26 career starts, but he has four finishes inside the Top 10 over the past six runs, and he is worth a roll of the dice.

Ganassi Racing’s Kyle Larson (+2000) hasn’t been terribly impressive this season, but he broke up the Toyota monopoly with a win in his Chevy back in Sep. 2017 at Richmond. He ranks seventh in Driver Rating (102.1) over the past five starts. Don’t forget about Penske’s Brad Keselowski (+850), too. He is second in Driver Rating over the past five starts. He hasn’t won at Richmond since Sep. 2014, but he has a solid 13.5 AFP and he has been 11th or better in seven straight starts at the short track. He’ll be a threat for checkers.

Odds courtesy of William Hill Sportsbook; for a full-set of today’s sport odds, access them at USA TODAY Sports.

Richmond Raceway long-shot bet

Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

Stewart-Haas Racing’s Daniel Suarez (+5000) might be worth a small-unit bet, as he has really been a quick study in four Cup starts at Richmond. He has never finished lower than 17th, and he already has a pair of top-10 showings.

Follow Joe on Twitter @JoeWilliamsVI


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