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NFL Prop Bet Action: Le'Veon Bell rushing yards and touchdowns

Jan 14, 2018; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Pittsburgh Steelers running back Le'Veon Bell (26) carries the ball past Jacksonville Jaguars defensive tackle Malik Jackson (97) during the second half in the AFC Divisional Playoff game at Heinz Field. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

The New York Jets will roll out their new toy in RB Le’Veon Bell after signing him to a four-year, $52.5 million contract. Bell, of course, sat out all of last season instead of playing under the Pittsburgh Steelers’ franchise tag for a second consecutive year.

Questions around Bell are plentiful, with the most glaring:

  • Will he be in the shape he needs to be after having a year off?
  • Can he hold up for an entire 16-game season?
  • Will the Jets rebuilding offense feature him as creatively as the Steelers? The Jets new head coach, Adam Gase, notoriously hates running backs.

Le’Veon Bell: By the numbers

Year G GS Att Run Yds Run TD Rec Rec Yds Rec TD
2018 Holdout: Did Not Play
2017 15 15 321 1,291 9 85 655 2
2016 12 12 261 1,268 7 75 616 2
2015 6 6 113 556 3 24 136 0
2014 16 16 290 1,361 8 83 854 3
2013 13 13 244 860 8 45 399 0
Avg 12.4 12.4 245.8 1067.2 7 62.4 532 1.4
Tot 62 62 1,229 5,336 35 312 2,660 7

Le’Veon Bell Prop Bets

Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Per FanDuel, here are some interesting NFL prop bets surrounding Bell for the 2019 season:

Prop Bet: Bell’s Regular Season Rushing Yards Over 1,032.5 (-135) / Under 1,032.5 (+105)

Staying on the field will be the biggest challenge not hitting the mark; he’s done that every season but one when he’s been healthy for at least 12 games.

Beyond that, there are some offensive concerns: As an offensive coordinator or head coach, Gase’s teams have ranked in the top-10 in rushing offense just once in six seasons – ranking ninth in 2016 with Miami. They’ve ranked 15th or worse in four-of-six seasons.

Gase hasn’t had many backs – just two – top that rushing total over the years. Here are his team’s leading rushers since 2013: Knowshon Moreno (1,038 yards/2013), C.J. Anderson (849 yards/2014), Matt Forte (898 yards/2015), Jay Ajayi (1,272 yards/2016), Kenyan Drake (644 yards/2017) and Frank Gore (722 yards/2018).

Despite Gase’s mediocre history properly using the position, Bell is a better talent than those aforementioned backs. Plus, the Jets invested heavily in Bell to balance the offense, taking pressure off second-year quarterback Sam Darnold.

The yardage-odd threshold isn’t that high, really; an average of just 64.5/game. Bell averages 86.1 rushing yards/game over his career. Provided he stays on the field, his floor is lower than that.

Best bet: Take the over at -135.

Prop Bet: Bell’s Regular Season Rushing Touchdowns Over 9.5 (+120) / Under 9.5 (-150)

On the surface, this one feels like easy money taking the under considering Gase only has had one back with 10 rushing touchdowns. Also consider Bell has never scored more than nine rushing touchdowns in a season; that, however, can be pinned on the Steelers’ play-calling and less on Bell’s ability.

However, Red Zone and goal-to-go situations have Bell’s (6-foot-1, 225 lbs.) name written all over them. With a lack of others competing for touches, Bell’s nose for finding small seams and a more balanced offense in Darnold’s second year, the Jets will cash-in on their investment. Expect for over 10 rushing touchdowns in 2019.

Best bet: Take the over at +120


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