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MLB Prop Bet Action: Mike Trout at 38.5 home runs

News flash: Mike Trout is pretty dang good at baseball. Soon, the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim are going to reward him for it.

Trout, 27, is finalizing a 12-year, $426.5 million deal to stay with the Angels long-term. That’s a pretty good pay day for one of the most exciting players in Major League Baseball.

Typically, players cashing in on huge contracts scare me away from them entering the year in fantasy sports, but Trout seems to be the exception to most rules. If I’m drafting No. 1 overall in fantasy baseball leagues this year, he remains my pick without question.

But what about in the sports betting world?

Mike Trout Prop Bet: 2019 Home Runs

Over at PointsBet.com, they have Trout’s home run line set at -115 for over 38.5 home runs in 2019.

PointsBet also has the line at -115 for under 38.5 home runs.

That’s an interesting total. So where should you put your money?

Mike Trout Career Home Runs

Year Games Home Runs RBI
2011 40 5 16
2012 139 30 83
2013 157 27 97
2014 157 36 111
2015 159 41 90
2016 159 29 100
2017 114 33 72
2018 140 39 79
TOTAL 1,065 240 648

As noted, 38.5 is intriguing for a player who has hit better than 38.5 home runs just twice in his career — barely sneaking by the total last year and getting just a few dingers more than this year’s line in 2015.

BaseballHQ.com Mike Trout Stats Forecast

We consulted with our friends at BaseballHQ.com and they project Trout to hit 40 HR and 90 RBI in 2019.

I’m going to side with BaseballHQ and sabermetrics here, taking the over at -115.

Full disclosure: BaseballHQ, like SportsbookWire, is also owned and operated by USA TODAY Sports Media Group


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